I keep reading in the Daily Kos and elsewhere this notion that people dislike the Republican party more than they dislike the Democratic party and as such, there won't be as many pickups by the GOP in November as the current predictions would seem to suggest.
This is, in my own humble opinion, a pretty dangerous notion to be spreading - given the enthusiasm gap between Democratic and Republican voters, why would one want to push the notion that Democrats shouldn't need to worry? Every sign I've seen, anecdotal or poll-based or historical or otherwise, suggests that liberals/progressives should be at the exploding-head stage right now about how to turn this thing around. I'm usually a pretty optimistic guy, but there's no reason to put on the rose-colored glasses when a serious threat to the implementation of progressive reforms is in as much danger as it is this year.
Naturally some of it is structural, Democrats are simply overextended. And in a rational world, I think the fact that Republicans are relatively unpopular as compared to the Democrats would hold back the conservative wave. But we don't live in a rational world.
The sense of visceral frustration, especially in those districts where these races are going to be won and lost - we're talkin' Rust Belt districts and leaning-conservative pickups from '06 and '08 - is going to lead Democrats to a total whuppin' this year because Democrats own 2/3 of the government and this is the year they're finally being seen as responsible. Swing voters, who are as noted earlier typically the least informed, are going to take it out on the party in power because it's not clear why 41 Republicans in the Senate should be responsible for holding up the extension of unemployment benefits...
...that is, unless some prominent Democrat wants to get his butt out there and push the message much harder than he has been up 'til now. That's right, I'm talkin' to you, El Presidente.
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